Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Fuzzy Logic In Modeling Inner-City Highway Accidents

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Ebrahim moorvari
Transportation engineering expert of Garme Municipality; Garme ; Iran
10.22034/el.2022.362200.1003
Abstract
In this study, the effectiveness of fuzzy models in modelling inner-city highway accidents is evaluated using the Mashhad highway accident data as a case study. For modelling based on fuzzy logic, the variables related to traffic flow and road geometry are used as input variables. Fuzzy modelling involves four stages: Fuzzification of input and output variables, generation of rules, combination and collection of diagrams and de-fuzzification. To fuzzify the variables in the scatter plot, the concept of statistical quantiles is used to assign linguistic terms such as low, medium or high.

Based on fuzzy logic, this paper presents two models for predicting the number of financial and fatal accidents on inner-city highways. By comparing the accident numbers estimated by the models with the observed numbers, the efficiency and accuracy of the models can be evaluated by the correlation coefficient R^2. In order to create rules for fuzzy modelling, the results of previous studies were used to identify the factors that influence the occurrence of financial and fatal accidents on inner-city motorways. By demonstrating the effectiveness of the fuzzy logic models created in predicting the number of accidents, the results of these studies can be confirmed.

Keywords

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Human Ecology
Volume 1, Issue 1
Autumn 2022
Pages 14-28