Investigating the Effects of Urban Sprawl on Carbon Distribution Using AHP-TOPSIS and MGWR Models

Urban sprawl, a pressing concern for sustainable urban development, poses significant challenges for reducing the carbon footprint in urban environments. This study addresses the complex dynamics of urban sprawl in the city of Urmia and examines its implications on the city's carbon emissions. This research aims to fill a critical knowledge gap by analyzing the spatial determinants of environmental sustainability and providing insights into the relationship between urban sprawl patterns and low-carbon city indicators. Leveraging a comprehensive methodological framework, this study combines descriptive analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). The population and housing census data from 1395 (2016-2017) and the GIS data from the detailed plan of Urmia provide a basis for investigating population distribution, land use patterns, and carbon emission indicators across the city's neighborhoods. This approach facilitates a thorough examination of the spatial distribution of urban sprawl and its environmental consequences, with a special focus on the role of urban form and density in shaping carbon emission trends. The findings reveal a diverse range of urban densities and land use patterns across Urmia. This research highlights the vital role of net and gross population densities as key factors influencing the urban carbon footprint. The application of the AHP and TOPSIS models identifies varying degrees of urban sprawl, highlighting the environmental challenges arising from suburban expansion. Furthermore, insights from the MGWR model underscore the significant impact of urban form on environmental sustainability and confirm the spatial relationship between urban sprawl and carbon emissions. Consequently, this study affirms that urban sprawl has a substantial impact on low-carbon city indicators in Urmia and suggests that high-density urban areas may offer potential solutions for reducing carbon emissions. These findings emphasize the need for urban planning and strategic policymaking that emphasize density and accessibility to enhance environmental sustainability. This study argues for ongoing research on the dynamic interplay between urban form and carbon emissions and proposes an integrated approach to urban development that supports low-carbon growth objectives. Future research should expand the scope of variables and employ diverse analytical methods to enrich our understanding of the complex impacts of urban sprawl.