Investigating the Combined Effects of Climate Change and Human Interventions on Water Yield Using Ecosystem Services Modeling in the Hirmand Transboundary River Basin

Document Type : Articles extracted from Thesis

Authors
Negin Kazemi 1
Lobat Zebardast 1
Roghaye Karami 2
1 Department of Environmental Planning, Management and HSE, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Natural Ecosystems, Hamoun International Wetland Institute, Research Institute of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
10.22034/he.2025.534185.1120
Abstract
The scarcity of water resources has always influenced environmental planning. This issue is particularly important in transboundary water resources, for which their planning and management are related to two or more neighboring countries, and every change or control over the water resource will affect the natural environment, human well-being, and livelihoods in the downstream country. In the present research, modeling of water yield as one of the essential ecosystem services has been conducted in the Hirmand Transboundary River. In this regard, initially, data related to the Hirmand River were collected through a literature review, and then the boundary of the basin was determined. The information used in modeling consisted of changes in the climatological factors of three time series with 10-year intervals, including the years 2002, 2012, and 2022. These factors included minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, sunshine hours (radiation), and also soil and land factors, such as root depth limit and the water readily available to plants in the soil and land use land cover maps. InVEST software version 3.3.2 was used to determine water yield in the watershed under study. The results related to the land cover changes obtained from the satellite imagery interpretation in three different time series indicate a decrease in the area of water bodies. Also, analyses related to water production from water yield showed that the total volume of water produced in the basin in 2002 was 5.14 million m3. This amount was 4.23 million m3 and 3.87 million m3 in 2012 and 2022, respectively. This declining trend of almost 25 percent in water production in the Hirmand basin indicates negative impacts on the socio-economic situation and the livelihoods of the local people, and also the environmental condition, particularly of the Hamoun Wetland. Among the proposed solutions of the present research is the necessity of efforts for securing the environmental water flow for the Hirmand River and Hamoun Wetland through mutual cooperation between Iran and Afghanistan.

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Human Ecology
Volume 4, Issue 11
Summer 2025
Pages 1149-1165