Complementarity of spatial patterns of heating–cooling demand based on the potential of hybrid wind‑photovoltaic resources

Articles in Press

Document Type : Derived from a research project

Authors
Gholamreza Roshan 1
AbdolAzim Saman 2
1 Department Of Geography, Golestan University, Shahid Beheshti, Gorgan, 49138-157.
2 Department Of Geography, Golestan University, Shahid Beheshti, Gorgan, 49138-15759, Iran.
10.22034/he.2026.580651.1204
Abstract
This study aims to develop a comprehensive climate-oriented framework for renewable energy planning in Iran by evaluating the simultaneous spatio-temporal analysis between heating–cooling energy demand (HDD and CDD) and the potential for hybrid wind-PV energy generation. Given the limitation of previous studies, which have primarily examined wind and solar resources separately, this research attempts to represent the complex interaction between energy supply and demand within an integrated, data-driven fuzzy model. Long-term temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed data extracted from the ECMWF database (ERA5 product) for the period 1995–2025 across the entire country, after preprocessing and normalization, were used as the basis for calculating energy demand indices (HDD and CDD) as well as estimating solar and wind energy potential. Subsequently, using pixel-wise Principal Component Analysis (PCA), local weighting of variables was performed to accurately account for Iran's climatic heterogeneity. Next, a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making framework was developed to combine energy generation and demand under four climatic scenarios and two strategic scenarios (self-sufficiency and surplus export). The results of this study indicate that the alignment patterns between renewable potential and energy demand in Iran are highly heterogeneous and dependent on climatic–geographical conditions. The south and southeast of the country, due to the coincidence of high solar radiation and intense cooling demand, are the most suitable areas for solar energy development and local self-sufficiency. In contrast, the east and parts of the central region, despite possessing both wind and solar resources, show the highest potential for genuine hybrid systems. The northwest and west, despite high heating demand, have the lowest suitability due to limited solar potential and weak alignment with wind. Furthermore, high-demand scenarios create the greatest spatial correspondence, while low-demand scenarios reveal suitable areas for surplus energy generation and export. Overall, the results indicate that optimal energy planning in Iran must be based on "functional zoning" and the simultaneous consideration of generation and demand. This approach can help increase efficiency, reduce energy waste, improve energy security, and facilitate the transition to a low-carbon system.

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Subjects

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Human Ecology

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 May 2026